Kevin Porter Jr. — Part I

The stepback three.

One of my favourite moves in modern basketball. In this modern era of high pace and spaced out basketball, it has an iconography similar to MJ or Kobe’s fadeaway. There are many variations on the move, but I’d have to say James Harden’s variation of the use is my favourite. It opens so much of his game up, and it is near impossible to stop.

What makes the move so useful is the amount of space generated by stepping back. It creates a clear window of opportunity for players to score that is extremely difficult for defenses to counter without fouling the shooter or being one of the most elite defenders in the game, and even then, it’s difficult.

Luka Doncic has also made the move a staple in his arsenal, constantly making defenders look silly with the amount of space he can create at will.

Nowadays, young players come into the league practicing this move to the point where it is no longer a novelty. It’s now an expected weapon in their arsenal.

Enter Kevin Porter Jr.

Kevin Porter Jr. (KPJ) has a skillset that is extremely alluring, with quick twitch athleticism, vertical pop, and dynamic handling & playmaking being very high on the wishlist for many teams looking to shore up or improve their guard rotation. As seen in the gif above, even during his college years, he was able to create a massive amount of space in a system which was not doing KPJ many favors with respect to creating shot opportunities for himself and his teammates.

His mastery of the move earned him early comparisons to James Harden, and while I think those comparisons are warranted, I think they may place KPJ in a mold that does not place what he is good at as an individual front and center.

Physicals:

Kevin Porter Jr is a 6'4" (or 6'5") southpaw combo guard with a 6'10" wingspan with dynamic ball skills selected as the 30th pick in the 2019 Draft from USC. What originally made him attractive to NBA teams was his ability to dynamically handle the ball and utilise change-of-pace to either create for himself or to exploit windows created for others.

Many compared him to Harden when coming out of high school and college, and the comparisons are relatively apt with respect to their use of the stepback to create a shot, pathways to the rim, or an opportunity for a teammate. However, I will say that I think their athletic gifts differ from one another.

Harden’s deceleration skill stems from raw strength and the ability to absorb momentum and stabilize for a shot. Porter’s step back is based on reading his defender and creating space before they can properly redirect themselves and react to his series of moves and counters, as Porter came into the league with the ability to sell his fakes and change direction at the drop of a hat.

The Beard’s stepback is predicated on his amazing stability, strength, and flexibility, and KPJ’s step back is based more on very sudden acceleration and exceptional balance.

The reason why I make this distinction is to highlight that while both players are executing the same action, they are utilizing different mechanisms and techniques to achieve the same result. In simpler terms, it’s the difference between stopping your car before accelerating in reverse versus throwing the car into reverse while drifting.

While Harden is by no means a horizontal athlete, KPJ is able to utilise his exceptional quick-twitch athleticism off-ball as well, something that Harden has not shown much of an affinity for at this point in his career. Per Synergy (albeit on a relatively small sample size), Kevin Porter Jr. is one of the league’s elite cutters and finishers, in the 93rd percentile, and utilising this talent in a similar way to his teammate Victor Oladipo will provide rim pressure that can open up the rest of Porter’s game in addition to the game of his teammates.

Kevin Porter Jr. while similar to Harden on the surface, is ultimately a different type of athlete. Porter, like many young players, needs the time and freedom to develop his own identity and to play his own game. Then, and only then, can we see him become the best version of himself.

Part II: Cleveland Cavaliers

KPJ’s Rookie Campaign:

Porter was in and out of the lineup for the Cleveland Cavaliers during his rookie campaign, but he showed enough of his skillset to leave many wanting more after some impressive scoring outbursts. Taking his overall numbers with a grain of salt, as he was a rookie guard with inconsistent minutes, he showed some early promise as a microwave scorer and as a secondary handler.

Most of his shots in Cleveland were assisted, which also served to obfuscate his true abilities, as his best games in Cleveland are games in which he is allowed to dominate the ball and allow the game to come to him, as opposed to reacting in dynamic situations and salvaging late clock possessions.

Porter is clearly a player used to playing with the ball in his hands, and thrives when he is allowed to work. Of rookies who logged 1100+ minutes of playing time, the USC standout was top 10 in scoring, and had he had more consistent playing time, it would be easy to advocate for him to have made an All-Rookie team.

As seen in the table above, at the rim, he was able to convert his attempts at a 71.8% clip, and he generated most of those shots by himself. Anyone who watched Porter play could see that he was a special talent, with one of the most elite analysts in the game saying that, “What Porter has, you just can’t teach it.”

The height of his rookie season was a 30 point outing against the championship contending Miami Heat.

He clearly made a name for himself as one of the premier scorers in the league, and prior to a misunderstanding that resulted in the Cavaliers shipping him off, KPJ was seen as one of the building blocks for that young Cleveland team.

Part III: Rio Grande Valley Vipers

While his exit from the Cavaliers could have been on better terms, after being traded to the Houston Rockets, Porter Jr. went to the G-League as a part of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, and quickly made it known why his skillset was so coveted in the first place.

He became the G-League’s top scorer, averaging 24.1 points, 6.5 boards, 7.2 assists, and 1.5 steals. Additionally, per Synergy, he was in the 74th percentile in Pick & Roll plays as the lead handler, so he was not only scoring, but also one of the lead creators on the Vipers. He was also in the 69th percentile (Nice!) in isolation plays, showing his ability to make plays out of nothing when the defense makes no concessions.

In his game against the Erie Bayhawks, the G-League affiliate of the New Orleans Pelicans, the G-League dynamo got the first triple double of the league’s season, posting 27 points, 11 boards, 14 assists, and two steals.

While his triple double against Erie may have been his most notable game, in my personal opinion, his best game was the game he played against the Westchester Knicks, in which he had 32 points, 7 rebounds, and 9 assists.

In this play, The G-League’s top scorer puts his talent on display. He reads his defender here and uses his ability to read-and-react quickly to get his shot off. Porter can tell that his defender, Ignas Brazdeikis, is clearly playing him for the drive with his strong hand. KPJ uses that fear of his drive to get Brazdeikis off-balance, and uses his dribble combinations to facilitate a drive to his right, protecting the ball with the left side of his body so as to safely get his shot off.

Chris Paul, or one of the most cerebral players in the league at the moment, does not have the quick twitch athleticism that Porter possesses, however, he utilises his ability to control the ball in a similar manner, to probe the paint and get to his spots.

As you can see, the plays are almost identical with respect to the method by which both guards were able to get to their preferred spot before firing off their jumper, both utilizing a change of pace in addition to their handle to get their opposing bigs off balance, seemingly making them yield the space to them.

The G-League standout is clearly partial to that low dribble combination to protect the ball for a moment or two to read his defender before stringing together another sequence of moves. As mentioned above, Porter’s stepback is based upon using his feints and acceleration to quickly take advantage of openings that he spots in the defense, and in the Westchester game, that was on full display. He uses that low dribble combo to lull his defender to sleep before using that superior burst he possesses to get anywhere on the floor he chooses to. He opts for a floater in this particular sequence, but he has numerous options in this play.

One of the foremost authorities on the G-League pointed out to me that what really made Porter Jr. different was his ability to maximise whichever big he was with on the court. He was able to quickly build chemistry with them, and facilitate successful possessions. Porter does have creation upside as a secondary playmaker, however his scoring ability and gravity necessitate that he maximises the openings given to him.

This is easily one of my favourite possessions from Porter Jr. as he utilizes his amazing scoring gravity to create an easy look for his teammates. As he grows as an elite scorer, his facilitation on those sorts of plays will be the true determinant of his ceiling.

Part IV: Shortcomings, Concerns, & Improvement

A criticism that has followed Porter from his days at USC is that sometimes he charges into the teeth of the defense without a plan, and to a degree, that is true. In the assist highlight above, Porter dishes a sweet no-look pass for an easy bucket. He was able to notice the defense keying in on him, and instantly launched the ball into the soft spot of the defense, noticing the fact that his big was cutting right at that moment.

All of that said, currently, at best, KPJ’s feel is inconsistent. At times Porter charges into the teeth of a defense without a plan and relies upon his exceptional talent to rectify the situation he charged into. Evan Zaucha of Premium Hoops discusses “Feel” for a basketball player, and what that completely entails. While Porter is already an elite handler and electric with the ball in his hands, he needs to get to a point with his movement where he can focus on mapping the floor and making those high level reads.

This highlight, while exceptional, is emblematic of this issue. Porter’s special skill is the ability to get wherever he wants using his handle and burst, however, he overly relies on the fact that he can score most anywhere on the court and seems to get stuck into scoring mode, forgetting to map the court.

In this play, you can clearly see that all five defenders are focused on Porter Jr. with four of them closing in on him in the paint! While our tough-shot taker & maker gets the shot to drop, he expended a lot more energy trying to score when he had two teammates open on the perimeter. In fact, it’s pretty egregious that before the shot drops, you can see his teammates already heading back to the defensive end of the court.

Often, this is attributed to a player merely “not keeping their head up”, but I personally think this stems from Porter’s style of play. As he is focused on reading his defender, he may get tunnel vision, and thus be unable to take advantage of the easy openings that his scoring gravity creates. Some of this will dissipate with time and experience, but Porter most likely needs to spend some time creating some easy reads and counters he can tie to his already impressive handling repertoire, so that he can make those reads a bit quicker, and spend more of his offensive bandwidth reading and manipulating the defense as a whole, as opposed to only manipulating his man.

As defenses adjust to accommodate his scoring gravity (and key in on that low dribble combination he likes so much), he will need to master making those reads. Caitlin Cooper highlights how TJ Warren’s scoring gravity placed more of an onus on him to create for his teammates, as opposing teams will be more willing to distort their defense to prevent Porter from getting to his preferred spots.

Our electric guard plays with a smoothness and poise when he is in his element that belies his age, and maximising this is the key to his success. As the game continues to slow down for him, and he continues to get comfortable making moves and exploiting openings in the defense, more and more of his skill will be able to shine.

As Porter joins the Rockets to try and aid them in stringing together some wins, it should be made clear that he will not dominate the NBA as easily as he did the G-League. While much of what he learned is transferable, the ease with which he was able to get to the rim will not be present to the same degree when playing against Sacramento, even if they are one of the poorer defenses in the NBA. This means that he may have to rely a bit more on his shooting, which is one of the few uncertainties in Porter’s game, which will be elaborated on below.

DARKO:

DARKO as a tool is used to evaluate players’ “true” progress and skill over the course of a season, working to sort of eliminate the noise and uncertainty within a player’s statistics during the ups and downs of the regular season. As seen in the graphic below, KPJ is at a relatively normal place for young combo guards, at this point in his career, although, like the other guards in the graphic, it seems that he does not have first option level upside. In both DARKO charts, Porter was repeatedly compared to CJ McCollum, Jrue Holiday, etc.

The most charitable interpretation is that on a high level offense, at best, our electric guard is an elite second option on a high level team who can scale up to a 1B in specific situations. Even with the rim pressure he provides with his athleticism and finishing, Porter would thrive in situations where the defense is already bent and he can read-and-react based on that, as opposed to bending defenses himself.

My largest concern for KPJ moving forward is as a shooter. His DARKO comparison chart compares him to Danny Green, Jrue Holiday, and Royce O’Neale. While all of these players are solid shooters, or in Green’s case, near-elite, all of these players are inconsistent from deep. There are times that these guys seem to hit near impossible shots and there are stretches in which they could not buy a bucket from deep.

This tells me that DARKO does not buy Porter Jr. as a high level shooter, and that to maximise his talents, he should focus on becoming a premier playmaker, as that and his ability to get to the rim will keep him on the court provided he does work on improving his passing and defense.

Additionally, Porter Jr.’s defense is average at best. While he can string together some impressive defensive sequences, as with many other young guards, he is still learning his way around, and needs to improve his communication, awareness, and ability to recover. With the athletic tools at Porter’s disposal, he has no excuse to not at least be a neutral on the defensive end, and so I hope to see progression for him there. All of his offensive gifts will not be able to properly shine if he’s giving more than he can generate on the other end of the floor.

Part V: Final Thoughts & Benediction

Not everyone has the talent and gets the chance that KPJ has for a fresh start. I’ve been where he’s been, feeling a lack of support during tumultuous times. In my life, basketball has always been a source of joy for me. As chaotic and kinetic as the sport is, it’s something that gives me peace. Whether I’m playing it, or watching it.

I don’t know if he feels exactly like I did, but if he did, I know that he wants to do better, but he also needs to feel wanted, to feel valued by those around him. When you don’t feel that support, it’s devastating. Something that takes the wind away from your wings.

I hope that Porter knows that there’s thousands of us cheering him on. Being jubilant at his successes and encouraging through his failures. Just through my research and discussions for this piece alone, I easily could point out over a hundred people who are excited for what you can do.

Continue being aggressive. Be that “DAWG” on both ends of the court. You’re not alone, man. You may not see us, hear us, or know who we are, but for every hater, every internal monologue that tries to tell you that you aren’t good enough, that you don’t have what it takes, there’s three people who will vehemently disagree and challenge those assertions.

You do have what it takes. You have years of greatness in you. We can all see it. You are good enough. You do deserve to be recognised as an elite baller. All you have to do is prove to the haters what all of your supporters have known this whole time.

Get in the lab, learn from the greats around you, and then show every single doubter the fruits of your labour.

Acknowledgements & Thanks

This piece would not have been possible without the help of:

Mark Schindler, Elizabeth Shuford, Meghan Munro, Dakota Schmidt, Joe Hulbert, Nekias Duncan, Evan Zaucha, Cody Houdek, Abib Ajibola, Steve Jones Jr., Daniel Olinger, Mike De La Rosa, Mike Garcia, Dr. Caitlin Green, PDWeb, & everyone else who I have forgotten to thank for their time, guidance, and insight.

Additional Thanks to: Caitlin Cooper, Tobias Berger, Ben Taylor, J. Kyle Mann, and Jessica Belmosto.